In 1824, Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams have been each members of the identical political get together. But in each different election with a discrepancy between the electoral and common votes, the dropping candidate has been the Democrat.
Odd coincidence? Or is the Electoral College biased towards the Democratic Party?
Democratic President Barack Obama appeared to indicate simply that in a December 2016 press convention: “The Electoral College is a vestige,” he informed reporters. “It’s a carry-over. … [T]listed below are some buildings in our political system, as envisioned by the Founders, that generally are going to drawback Democrats.”
It’s a humorous factor to say, after all. Republicans have spent years bemoaning the large lead that Democrats have loved within the Electoral College.
The so-called “blue wall” was regarded as impenetrable, apparently giving Democrats a bonus earlier than voting even began. Pundits claimed that Democrats would start 2016 with a head begin of not less than 217 electoral votes—and maybe as many as 249.
“No matter whom Republicans nominate to face Hillary Rodham Clinton in November 2016,” one columnist at The Washington Post wrote, “that candidate will begin at a drawback. It’s not polling, Clinton’s deep résumé, or the bettering state of the financial system. It’s the Electoral College.”
Another political scientist made an analogous prediction in 2014.
Benjamin Highton, a professor on the University of California, Davis claimed that the Democratic tilt within the Electoral College was so heavy Republican could be unlikely to win the 2016 election except that Republican first gained the nationwide common vote by not less than 1 or 2 share factors.
The precise outcomes flipped this expectation on its head: Donald Trump gained the electoral vote pretty simply, whilst Clinton gained the nationwide common tally by greater than 2 share factors.
>>> Purchase Tara Ross’s guide, “The Indispensable Electoral College: How the Founders’ Plan Saves Our Country from Mob Rule“
Such outcomes naturally resurrect the query: Is the Electoral College biased towards Democrats? Or did Democrats merely blow their lead by taking voters without any consideration?
If Democrats did certainly blow their lead, then they have been merely repeating a mistake that the Republican Party made within the 1990s.
After the Reagan years, it was mentioned that Republicans had a “lock” on the Electoral College. At least 21 states, together with California, have been constantly voting Republican. How may Democrats hope to compete?
Bill Clinton quickly discovered a approach, after all. He turned California and eight different states blue for the primary time since 1964.
Other presidents have achieved related feats. In 1952, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower gained 16 states that hadn’t voted Republican since 1928 and two others that hadn’t voted Republican since 1924.
Democratic President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, after all, demolished a North-South divide that had endured, for probably the most half, for the reason that Civil War. In 1936, he gained each state besides Maine and Vermont.
The actuality is that any “bias” within the Electoral College doesn’t constantly favor or disfavor both of the political events. To the diploma that there are biases, they’re short-lived.
States change their allegiances pretty constantly. Party allegiance is sort of a pendulum, slowly swinging backwards and forwards, first showing to favor the one get together, after which showing to favor the opposite.
The pressure within the system displays the fixed, wholesome competitors between the 2 events: Each is at all times attempting to outperform the opposite by capturing the big bloc of voters in the midst of American politics.
A cautious research of historical past reveals that the Electoral College is neither pro-Democrat nor pro-Republican. It merely rewards the candidate who seems to be listening to the best cross-section of individuals at any given time.
Obama complained that the system put Democrats at a drawback, however he got here nearer to the reality when he concluded, “[I]f we’ve a powerful message, if we’re chatting with what the American individuals care about, sometimes the favored vote and the Electoral College vote will align.”
This excerpt was taken with permission from Tara Ross’ guide, “The Indispensable Electoral College: How the Founders’ Plan Saves Our Country from Mob Rule” (Regnery Gateway, 2017).
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