Last week, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk launched his private luxurious Tesla into deep house on prime of essentially the most highly effective operational rocket on this planet. The plan was to place the automobile into an elliptical orbit across the Sun, permitting it to make a number of shut passes to Mars over its multi-million yr lifespan.

Shortly after the launch, Musk tweeted that the automobile had overshot its trajectory somewhat bit and was as an alternative headed to the asteroid belt. This prompted a bunch of astronerds to crunch the numbers themselves, they usually discovered that though the automobile was headed to a unique trajectory than initially deliberate, it might nonetheless be passing nearer to Mars than the asteroid belt.

Not to be out carried out, a gaggle of 5 Canadian astrophysicists revealed a paper on arXiv at present calculating the chance that Musk’s sports activities automobile would collide with a planet within the photo voltaic system. According to their simulations, there’s roughly a six % likelihood that the automobile will collide with Earth someday within the subsequent million years. Those odds aren’t nice, however they’re considerably greater than Venus, which has a couple of 2.5 % likelihood of collision.

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In phrases of monitoring and modeling the Tesla’s trajectory, the automobile is similar to asteroids. Running simulations based mostly on NASA’s HORIZONS database for monitoring our bodies within the photo voltaic system, the physicists discovered that the automobile’s first shut go with Earth might be in 2091 and it might come “inside a lunar distance” of the Earth.

Yet the results of gravity from these shut passes with Earth additionally create disturbances within the automobile’s preliminary trajectory, which makes long run forecasts concerning the chance of a collision extremely troublesome. The physicists ran 48 simulations accounting for various variables that might alter the automobile’s orbital trajectory and none of those simulations resulted within the automobile colliding with Earth within the subsequent 1,000 years.

When the researchers checked out collision possibilities within the subsequent 3 million years, they discovered that “though there have been a number of shut encounters with Mars in our simulations, none of them resulte din a bodily collision.” By distinction, Earth and Venus had a six and 2.5 % likelihood of collision within the subsequent million years, respectively. All issues thought of, the researchers estimate that the Tesla will final round 20 million years and that they count on “collision possibilities with the Earth to be substantial.”

There’s a fairly good likelihood there gained’t even be people round by the point the Tesla collides with Earth, however within the meantime you possibly can monitor its progress towards its inevitable demise right here.

This article sources data from Motherboard